2013骞村湡鍦颁及鍍�(ji脿)甯浉闂�(gu膩n)鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)鑰冮粸(di菐n)瑙ｆ瀽7

鏇存柊鏅�(sh铆)闁擄細2013-03-20 17:50:57 渚�(l谩i)婧愶細|0

鐎忚

鏀惰棌

鎽樿 鍦熷湴浼板児(ji脿)甯浉闂�(gu膩n)鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)

鍩虹(ch菙)鑸囨硶瑕�(gu墨)涓�鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)涓�鐞嗚珫鑸囨柟娉�涓�瀵�(sh铆)鍕�(w霉)鍩虹(ch菙)涓ㄦ渚嬭垏鍫�(b脿o)鍛�

榛�(di菐n)鎿婇€�(j矛n)鍏�锛�2013骞村湡鍦颁及鍍�(ji脿)甯浉闂�(gu膩n)鐭ヨ瓨(sh铆)鑰冮粸(di菐n)瑙ｆ瀽鍖附

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銆€銆€閬告搰鏍规摎(j霉)銆婂煄閹�(zh猫n)鍦熷湴浼板児(ji脿)瑕�(gu墨)绋嬨€�(浠ヤ笅绨�(ji菐n)绋便€婅(gu墨)绋嬨€�)锛屽畻鍦板湴鍍�(ji脿)鐨勪及鍍�(ji脿)鏂规硶鏈夊競鍫�(ch菐ng)姣旇純娉曘€佹敹鐩婇倓鍘熸硶銆佸墿浣欐硶(鍋囪ō(sh猫)闁�(k膩i)鐧�(f膩)娉�)銆佹垚鏈€艰繎娉曘€佸熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)绯绘暩(sh霉)淇娉�銆佽矾绶氬児(ji脿)浼板児(ji脿)娉曠瓑澶氱ó鏂规硶锛屼及鍍�(ji脿)鏂规硶鐨勯伕鎿囨噳(y墨ng)鎸夌収銆婅(gu墨)绋嬨€�锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)鐣�(d膩ng)?sh霉)姘愮a(ch菐n)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)鐙€娉�锛屽苟绲�(ji茅)鍚堜及鍍�(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞＄殑鐗归粸(di菐n)锛岄伕鍙栭仼瀹滅殑鏂规硶銆�

銆€銆€寰呬及瀹楀湴浣嶄簬xxxx璺互鍗�锛屽湪銆妜xxx甯傚煄鍗€(q奴)鍦熷湴瀹氱礆(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆嬭寖鍦嶅収(n猫i);灞簬鍟嗘キ(y猫)涓夌礆(j铆)鍦帮紝閲囩敤鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)绯绘暩(sh霉)淇娉曞垏瀵�(sh铆)鍙;涓斿畻鍦颁綔鐐哄晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴锛屽悓椤炲崁(q奴)鍩熷競鍫�(ch菐ng)浜ゆ槗璩囨枡杓冭睈瀵�锛屽彲閲囩敤甯傚牬(ch菐ng)姣旇純娉曚綔鐐虹浜岀ó浼板児(ji脿)鏂规硶銆傛晠渚濇摎(j霉)銆婅(gu墨)绋嬨€嬪苟绲�(ji茅)鍚堣⿻(p铆ng)浼板皪(du矛)璞＄殑鐗归粸(di菐n)鍙婇爡(xi脿ng)鐩殑瀵�(sh铆)闅涙儏娉�锛岀⒑瀹氶噰鐢ㄥ熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)绯绘暩(sh霉)淇娉曞拰甯傚牬(ch菐ng)姣旇純娉曟脯(c猫)绠楀湴鍍�(ji脿)锛屽苟灏囧叐绋柟娉曟脯(c猫)绠楃祼(ji茅)鏋滈€�(j矛n)琛岀稖鍚堝垎鏋愯(di脿o)鏁�锛屽緸鑰屽緱鍒板緟浼板晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴鐨勫湴鍍�(ji脿)銆�

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銆€銆€1)鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏄煇涓€绱�(j铆)鍒ユ垨鍧囪唱(zh矛)鍗€(q奴)鍩熷収(n猫i)鍒嗙敤閫旂殑鍦熷湴浣跨敤娆�(qu谩n)骞冲潎鍍�(ji脿)鏍�;鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)绯绘暩(sh霉)淇� 姝ｆ硶鏄緷浼板児(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞℃墍铏曞湡鍦扮礆(j铆)鍒ョ殑鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)锛岀祼(ji茅)鍚堝崁(q奴)鍩熷洜绱�銆佸€�(g猫)鍒ュ洜绱犵瓑淇绯绘暩(sh霉)鐨勮(di脿o)鏁�锛屽緱鍒颁及鍍�(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞″湡鍦板児(ji脿)鏍肩殑涓€绋柟娉�銆�

銆€銆€2)銆妜xxx甯傚煄鍗€(q奴)鍦熷湴瀹氱礆(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆嬫脯(c猫)绠楀崁(q奴)鑼冨湇鏄痻xxx锛岄潰绌峹xxxkm.鍏卞垎鐐哄晢妤�(y猫)銆佷綇瀹�銆佸伐妤�(y猫)涓夐鐢ㄥ湴锛屽叾涓晢妤�(y猫)鍒嗙偤xx绱�(j铆)锛屼綇瀹呯偤xx绱�(j铆)锛屽伐妤�(y猫)鐐簒x绱�(j铆)銆傝┎銆妜xxx甯傚煄鍗€(q奴)鍦熷湴瀹氱礆(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆嬩簬xxxx骞磝xxx鏈堥€氶亷(gu貌)xxxx鐪佸湅(gu贸)鍦熻硣婧愬怀绲勭箶鐨勯憭瀹氶(y脿n)鏀跺苟缍�(j墨ng)xxxx甯備汉姘戞斂搴滃叕甯冨(sh铆)琛�銆�

銆€銆€3)xxxx甯傚晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏄寚鍦熷湴鐢ㄩ€旂偤鍟嗘キ(y猫)锛屽湡鍦颁娇鐢ㄥ勾闄愮偤40骞达紝瀹圭⿳鐜囪ō(sh猫)瀹氱偤鍩庡崁(q奴)鍟嗘キ(y猫)骞冲潎瀹圭⿳鐜�1.8锛屽湡鍦伴枊(k膩i)鐧�(f膩)绋嬪害鐐虹磪绶氬浜旈€�(鍗抽€氫笂銆佷笅姘�銆侀浕銆佽矾銆佽▕)鍙婄磪绶氬収(n猫i)鍫�(ch菐ng)鍦板钩鏁存浠朵笅鐨勭礆(j铆)鍒ュ収(n猫i)鐨勫湡鍦颁娇鐢ㄦ瑠(qu谩n)骞冲潎鍍�(ji脿)鏍�銆�

銆€銆€閲囩敤鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)瑷�(j矛)绠楀晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴瀹楀湴鍦板児(ji脿)鐨勫叕寮忕偤锛宲i=p脳(1+k)脳y脳t脳kij脳f寮忎腑 pi鈥曗€曞緟浼板畻鍦板湴鍍�(ji脿)p鈥曗€曞緟浼板畻鍦板皪(du矛)鎳�(y墨ng)鐨勫熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)k銆亂銆乼銆乲ij銆乫鈥曗€曞畻鍦板湴鍍�(ji脿)淇绯绘暩(sh霉)鍜屽勾鏈熴€佹湡鏃�銆佸绌嶇巼銆佸熀绀�(ch菙)瑷�(sh猫)鏂芥浠朵慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉)銆�

銆€銆€浼板児(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞¤ō(sh猫)瀹氱敤閫旂偤鍟嗘キ(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴锛岃檿浜巟xxx甯傚晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴涓夌礆(j铆)鍦板収(n猫i)锛屽叾鍩烘簴(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)姘村钩1200锝�1600鍏�/鈹�.

銆€銆€4)绶ㄥ埗浼板児(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞″悇鍥犵礌姊濅欢瑾�(shu艒)鏄�銆佸劒(y艒u)鍔ｅ害鍙婁慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉)琛�

銆€銆€鈶犲湪瑭�(p铆ng)浼颁腑锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)銆妜xxx甯傚煄鍗€(q奴)鍦熷湴瀹氱礆(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆嬪強浼板児(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞＄殑鍏烽珨姊濅欢锛屾垜鍊戦伕鎿囦簡浠ヤ笅鍥犵礌锛�(鐣�)锛屽苟閫�(j矛n)琛屼簡鏈熸棩銆佷娇鐢ㄥ勾鏈�銆佸绌嶇巼銆佸熀绀�(ch菙)瑷�(sh猫)鏂芥浠剁瓑闋�(xi脿ng)淇銆�

銆€?銆佽療槎�?j霉)銆妜xxx甯傚煄鍗€(q奴)鍦熷湴瀹氱礆(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆�锛屽晢妤�(y猫)鐢ㄥ湴浜岀礆(j铆)鍦板湴鍍�(ji脿)淇骞呭害瑾�(shu艒)鏄庤〃鍜屽畻鍦板湴鍍�(ji脿)褰遍熆鍥犵礌淇骞呭害琛�(鐣�)锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)褰遍熆浼板児(ji脿)灏�(du矛)璞″湴鍍�(ji脿)鐨勫洜-绱犳浠跺垎鏋�锛岀⒑瀹氬緟浼板畻鍦板悇鍥犵礌姊濅欢瑾�(shu艒)鏄�銆佸劒(y艒u)鍔ｅ害鍙婁慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉)琛ㄣ€�(鐣�)

銆€銆€5)纰哄畾瀹楀湴鍦板児(ji脿)瑭�(p铆ng)浼扮殑淇绯绘暩(sh霉)k k=鈭慿i i=(1鈥)

銆€銆€寮忎腑

銆€銆€k鈥曗€曟煇涓€瀹楀湴鎵€鏈夊湴鍍�(ji脿)褰遍熆鍥犵礌绺戒慨姝ｅ箙搴�(%)

銆€銆€ki鈥曗€曞畻鍦扮i鍊�(g猫)鍥犵礌姊濅欢涓嬩慨姝ｅ箙搴�(%)

銆€銆€n鈥曗€曚慨姝ｅ洜绱犲€�(g猫)鏁�(sh霉)锛屾牴鎿�(j霉)涓婅〃鍙緱k=8.44% 6)纰哄畾鍦熷湴浣跨敤骞存湡淇绯粂 y=[1-(1+r)m]/ [1-(1+r)n]寮忎腑

銆€銆€y鈥曗€曞畻鍦颁娇鐢ㄥ勾鏈熶慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉);

銆€銆€m鈥曗€曞緟浼板畻鍦拌ō(sh猫)瀹氫娇鐢ㄥ勾鏈�;

銆€銆€n鈥曗€曞熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鍏�(n猫i)娑电⒑瀹氱殑鍦熷湴浣跨敤骞存湡;

銆€銆€r鈥曗€曞湡鍦伴倓鍘熷埄鐜�锛�9%銆�

銆€銆€缍�(j墨ng)瑷�(j矛)绠�锛屽緟浼板畻鍦板勾鏈熶慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉)y=0.9622. 7)纰哄畾鏈熸棩淇绯绘暩(sh霉)t鏍规摎(j霉)瑾�(di脿o)鏌ュ垎鏋愬拰娓�(c猫)绠�锛�2002骞�1鏈堣嚦2003骞�6鏈�20鏃ワ紝x x x x甯傚湴鍍�(ji脿)鎸囨暩(sh霉)涓婃疾10.8%锛屾晠鏈熸棩淇绯绘暩(sh霉)t=1.108. 8)纰哄畾瀹圭⿳鐜囦慨姝ｇ郴鏁�(sh霉)鏍规摎(j霉)銆妜xxx甯傚煄甯傚湡鍦板畾绱�(j铆)鑸囧熀婧�(zh菙n)鍦板児(ji脿)鏇存柊銆嬫垚鏋�锛岀暥(d膩ng)瀹楀湴瀹圭⿳鐜囩偤1.4锝�1.6鏅�(sh铆)锛屽叾淇绯绘暩(sh霉)鐐�0.98.

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