绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻


鐐哄公鍔╁ぇ瀹舵洿濂界殑鍌欒€冪郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧鑰冭│锛屽皬绶ㄧ壒鏁寸悊浜�“绯荤当(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧瑷�(j矛)绠楅鑰冮粸(di菐n)锛氫笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻”鐨勭浉闂�(gu膩n)鍏�(n猫i)瀹癸紝甯屾湜灏嶅ぇ瀹惰兘澶犳湁鎵€骞姪锛屽叿楂斿収(n猫i)瀹硅┏瑕嬩笅鏂囥€�
婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�鑰冪敓濡傛灉鎯充簡瑙f垨鎿�(d膩n)蹇冭嚜宸遍尟閬庤粺鑰冧腑闋�(xi脿ng)鑰冭│鐨勫牨鍚嶆檪闁�銆佽€冭│鏅傞枔銆佹垚绺炬煡瑭㈡檪闁撱€佽瓑鏇搁牁(l菒ng)鍙栨檪闁撶瓑鏅傞枔绡€(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)锛屽彲浣跨敤“ 鍏嶈不(f猫i)闋�(y霉)绱勭煭淇℃彁閱�”鏈嶅嫏(w霉)锛岄爯(y霉)绱勬垚鍔燂紝灞嗘檪閲嶈鑰冭│绡€(ji茅)榛�(di菐n)鎴戝€戞渻浠ョ煭淇″舰寮忓強鏅傛彁閱掓偍锛�
娉細瑭茶€冮粸(di菐n)浣嶄簬銆婄郴绲�(t菕ng)闆嗘垚闋�(xi脿ng)鐩鐞嗗伐绋嬪斧鏁欑▼銆�(绗�2鐗�)308闋�
瀹氱京锛�涓夐粸(di菐n)浼扮畻涔熷彨PERT浼扮畻娉�锛屽嵆 “瑷�(j矛)鍔冭⿻浼板拰瀵╂煡鎶€琛�(sh霉)”銆傞€氶亷鑰冩叜浼扮畻涓殑涓嶇⒑瀹氭€у拰棰�(f膿ng)闅�锛屽彲浠ユ彁楂樻椿鍕曟寔绾�(x霉)鏅傞枔浼扮畻鐨勬簴(zh菙n)纰烘€�銆侾ERT浣跨敤3绋及绠楀€间締鐣屽畾娲诲嫊鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅傞枔鐨勮繎浼煎崁(q奴)闁�锛屽嵆鍦ㄤ及绠楁椿鍕曞伐鏈熸垨娲诲嫊鎴愭湰鏅�锛岃€冩叜涓夌ó鍙兘鐨勬儏娉�锛屽緱鍑�“鏈€妯傝宸ユ湡(tO)銆佹渶鎮茶宸ユ湡(tP)銆佹渶鍙兘宸ユ湡(tM)”锛屽啀鎿�(j霉)姝よ▓(j矛)绠楁湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡tE)銆�
鏈熸湜鍊艰▓(j矛)绠楀叕寮忥細
璨濆鍒嗗竷锛�
tE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6
cE=(tP+4tM+tO)/6
涓夎鍒嗗竷锛�(婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�璨濆鍒嗗竷姣斾笁瑙掑垎甯冪畻鐨勬洿绮剧⒑锛屽鏋滈鐩矑鏈夋槑纰鸿鏄庣敤涓夎鍒嗗竷锛屽墖榛樿獚(r猫n)鐢ㄨ矟濉斿垎甯�銆�)
tE=(tP+tM+tO)/3
cE=(tP+tM+tO)/3
鐢ㄤ笁榛�(di菐n)浼扮畻瑷�(j矛)绠楀嚭渚嗙殑瀹屾垚鏌愭椿鍕曠殑鏈熸湜宸ユ湡(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岄兘鍙湁50%鍙兘鎬�(姒傜巼)鍦ㄨ┎宸ユ湡鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐銆傜偤閫�(j矛n)涓€姝ヨ▓(j矛)绠椾笉鍚屾檪闁撳収(n猫i)锛屾垨涓嶅悓鏅傞枔璁婂嫊鍗€(q奴)闁撳収(n猫i)鐨勫畬宸ユ鐜�锛岃寮曞叆姝eお鍒嗗竷鍦栭€�(j矛n)琛屽憟鐝�(xi脿n)锛屽湒褰㈢殑涓枔绶氭鏈€楂樺皪鎳�(y墨ng)鏁�(sh霉)鍊间唬琛ㄦ湡鏈涘伐鏈�(骞冲潎宸ユ湡)锛岀敤±δ绻埗鍏朵粬鍧愭(bi膩o)鏁�(sh霉)鍊硷紝δ浠h〃妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�銆�
妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸強鏂瑰樊锛�妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(Standard deviation)锛岀敤浠ヨ鏄庝及绠楀€�(鏈熸湜鎸佺簩(x霉)鏅傞枔tE)鐨勯洟鏁e害鍜屼笉纰哄畾鍗€(q奴)闁�锛屽叾瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忕偤: δ= (tP- tO)/6銆傛柟宸垏妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸竴妯�锛屼篃鏄〃绀轰及绠楀€肩殑闆㈡暎搴︼紝鍏惰▓(j矛)绠楀叕寮忕偤妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸殑骞虫柟锛屽嵆鏂瑰樊=δ²
婧Θ鎻愮ず锛�澶氬€嬫椿鍕曟檪锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸笉鑳界洿鎺ョ浉鍔�锛岃閫氶亷鏂瑰樊鐩稿姞锛屾鏅傛(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸偤鍚勬椿鍕曠殑鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰鍐嶉枊骞虫柟銆�
瀹屽伐姒傜巼瑷�(j矛)绠楋細瑷樹綇3鍊嬫暩(sh霉)瀛�——68%銆�95%锛�99%銆�
1.濡傛灉鐢�1鍊嬫(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±1δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕曞湪“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±1δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜囩殑姒傜巼鏄�68.26%;
2.濡傛灉鐢�2鍊嬫(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±2δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕曞湪“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±2δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸95.46%;
3.濡傛灉鐢�3鍊嬫(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�(±3δ)浼扮畻宸ユ湡锛屼换鍕�(w霉)鎴栨椿鍕曞湪灏辨槸“骞冲潎宸ユ湡±3δ”鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐鐨勬鐜�锛屾鐜囨槸99.73%;
澶氬€嬫椿鍕曡▓(j矛)绠楋細
鐭ラ亾鍠€嬫椿鍕曞伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼鍚庯紝鎴戝€戝氨鍙互鏍规摎(j霉)绲﹀嚭澶氬€嬫椿鍕曠殑tP銆乼M銆乼O锛屾眰澶氬€嬫椿鍕曞湪绲﹀畾鏅傞枔鍏�(n猫i)瀹屽伐姒傜巼銆�
姣斿瑷�(j矛)绠楀悓涓€姊濋棞(gu膩n)閸佃矾寰戜笂鍏ㄩ儴娲诲嫊(涓嶅惈鎻愬墠鑸囨化鍚庨噺)鐨勫伐鏈熻垏姒傜巼銆傞€欐檪闇€瑕佽▓(j矛)绠楀嚭“澶氬€嬫椿鍕曠殑骞冲潎宸ユ湡鑸囧娲诲嫊鐨勬(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�”锛屽叾涓娲诲嫊鐨勫钩鍧囧伐鏈熷氨鏄�“娲诲嫊骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰”锛屾(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸槸“灏嶅娲诲嫊鏂瑰樊涔嬪拰绠楁牴铏�”锛�
骞冲潎宸ユ湡=娲诲嫊骞冲潎宸ユ湡涔嬪拰=tE1+tE2+tE3.....tEn
妯�(bi膩o)婧�(zh菙n)宸�=

鑰冨墠娌栧埡璩囨枡锛�姝峰勾鐪熼銆�楂橀牷鑰冮粸(di菐n)銆�鍒烽搴�鍙粸(di菐n)鎿�鍏嶈不(f猫i)涓嬭級銆�
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