Predicting the future
預(yù)測未來
Predicting the future is notoriously difficult. Who could have imagined, in the mid 1970s, for example, that by the end of the 20th century, computers would be as common in people's homes as TV sets? In the 1970s, computers were common enough, but only in big business, government departments, and large organizations. These were the so-called mainframe machines. Mainframe computers were very large indeed, often occupying whole air-conditioned rooms, employing full-time technicians and run on specially-written software. Though these large machines still exist, many of their functions have been taken over by small powerful personal computers, commonly known as PCs.
In 1975, a primitive machine called the Altair, was launched in the USA. It can properly be described as the first 'home computer' and it pointed the way to the future. This was followed, at the end of the 1970s, by a machine called an Apple. In the early 1980s, the computer giant, IBM produced the world's first Personal Computer. This ran on an 'operating system' called DOS, produced by a then small company named Microsoft. The IBM Personal Computer was widely copied. From those humble beginnings, we have seen the development of the user-friendly home computers and multimedia machines which are in common use today.
Considering how recent these developments are, it is even more remarkable that as long ago as the 1960s, an Englishman, Leon Bagrit, was able to predict some of the uses of computers which we know today. Bagrit dismissed the idea that computers would learn to 'think' for themselves and would 'rule the world', which people liked to believe in those days. Bagrit foresaw a time when computers would be small enough to hold in the hand, when they would be capable of providing information about traffic jams and suggesting alternative routes, when they would be used in hospitals to help doctors to diagnose illnesses, when they would relieve office workers and accountants of dull, repetitive clerical work. All these computer uses have become commonplace. Of course, Leon Bagrit could not possibly have foreseen the development of the Internet, the worldwide system that enables us to communicate instantly with anyone in any part of the world by using computers linked to telephone networks. Nor could he have foreseen how we could use the Internet to obtain information on every known subject, so we can read it on a screen in our homes and even print it as well if we want to. Computers have become smaller and smaller, more and more powerful and cheaper and cheaper. This is what makes Leon Bagrit's predictions particularly remarkable. If he, or someone like him, were alive today, he might be able to tell us what to expect in the next fifty years.
眾所周知，預(yù)測未來是非常困難的。舉個例子吧，在20世紀(jì)70年代中葉又有誰能想得到在20世紀(jì)末的時候，家庭用的計算機(jī)會像電視機(jī)一樣普遍?在70年代，計算機(jī)已經(jīng)相當(dāng)普及了，但只用在大公司，政府部門和大的組織之中，它們被稱為主機(jī)。計算機(jī)主機(jī)確實很大，常常占據(jù)了裝有空調(diào)的多間房間，雇用專職的技師，而且得用專門編寫的軟件才能運(yùn)行。雖然這種大計算機(jī)仍然存在，但它們的許多功能已被體積小但功能齊全的個人電腦——即我們常說的PC機(jī)——所代替了。
1975年，美國推出了一臺被稱為“牛郎星”的原始機(jī)型。嚴(yán)格地說起來，它可以被稱為第一臺“家用電腦”，而且它也指了今后的方向。70年代末，在牛郎星之后又出現(xiàn)了一種被稱為“蘋果”的機(jī)型。80年代初，計算機(jī)行業(yè)的王牌公司美國國際商用機(jī)器公司(IBM)生產(chǎn)出了世界上第一臺個人電腦。這種電腦采用了一種被稱為磁盤操作系統(tǒng)(DOS)的工作程序，而這種程序是由當(dāng)時規(guī)模不大的微軟公司生產(chǎn)的。IBM的個人電腦被大規(guī)模地模仿。從那些簡陋的初級階段，我們看到了現(xiàn)在都已普及的、使用簡便的家用電腦和多媒體的微機(jī)的發(fā)展。
想一想這些發(fā)展的時間多么短，就更覺得英國人萊昂.巴格瑞特有著非凡的能力。他在60年代就能預(yù)言我們今天知道的計算機(jī)的一些用途。巴格瑞特根本不接受計算機(jī)可以學(xué)會自己去“思考”和計算可以“統(tǒng)治世界”這種想法，而這種想法是當(dāng)時的人們都愿意相信的。巴格瑞特預(yù)示有一天計算機(jī)可以小到拿在手上，計算機(jī)可以使辦公室人員和會計免除那些枯燥、重復(fù)的勞動。計算機(jī)的所有這些功能現(xiàn)在都變得很平常。當(dāng)然了，萊昂.巴格瑞特根本沒有可能預(yù)測到國際交互網(wǎng)——就是把計算機(jī)連結(jié)到電話線路上，以便和世界上任何一個地方的人立即進(jìn)行聯(lián)系的一個世界范圍的通訊系統(tǒng)——的發(fā)展。他也無法預(yù)測到我們可以利用國際交互網(wǎng)獲取有關(guān)任何已知專題的信息，以便在家里的屏幕上閱讀，如果愿意的話甚至可以將其打印出來。計算機(jī)已經(jīng)變得體積越來越小，功能越來越多，價格越來越低，這就是萊昂.巴格瑞特的預(yù)測非凡的地方。如果他或是像他的什么人今天還活著的話，他大概可以告訴我們下一個50年后會發(fā)生什么事情。
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