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銆€銆€2銆佽┎甯�2007骞寸殑閫氳波鑶ㄨ劰鐜�

銆€銆€=(2007骞寸殑娑堣不鐗╁児鎸囨暩(sh霉)-2006骞寸殑娑堣不鐗╁児鎸囨暩(sh霉))/2006骞寸殑娑堣不鐗╁児鎸囨暩(sh霉)

銆€銆€=(280-260)/260=7.69%(鎴�7.7%)

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銆€銆€=0.06×5+0.15×80+0.03×18+043×45+050×16+0.06×70+0.08×30+0.04×90+0.66×5+0.18×60+0.03×45=65.84(钀厓)

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銆€銆€4銆佸闅涙悕澶�=45+16=61(钀厓)

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銆€銆€鐗归粸鏄棦鏈夎妤�(y猫)鐧�(f膩)灞�?ji茅)鎽�?锛屽張鍏锋湁绔剁埈鍔�锛屾槸甯傚牬涓殑闋�(l菒ng)鍏堣€�锛岃妤�(y猫)铏曚簬鎴愰暦鏈�銆傜瓥鐣ユ槸閲嶉粸鐧�(f膩)灞�锛岃拷鍔犳姇璩�锛屾摯澶фキ(y猫)鍕�(w霉)瑕�(gu墨)妯�銆�

銆€銆€C鏄�“閲戠墰”妤�(y猫)鍕�(w霉)銆�

銆€銆€鐗归粸鏄競鍫村崰鏈夌巼杓冮珮锛屼絾琛屾キ(y猫)鎴愰暦鐜囪純浣�锛岃檿浜庢垚鐔熸湡锛屼紒妤�(y猫)鐢熺敘(ch菐n)瑕�(gu墨)妯¤純澶�锛岃兘甯朵締澶ч噺绌�(w臎n)瀹氱殑鐝�(xi脿n)閲戞敹鐩�銆�

銆€銆€绛栫暐鏄董鎸佺┅(w臎n)瀹氱敓鐢�(ch菐n)锛屼笉鍐嶈拷鍔犳姇璩�锛岀洝鍙兘鍥炴敹璩囬噾锛岀嵅鍙栧埄娼�銆�

銆€銆€2.鐢插挩瑭㈠伐绋嬪斧灏嶇Щ鍕曞钩鍧囨硶鍜屽洖姝稿垎鏋愭硶鐨勭湅娉曟槸涓嶆纰虹殑銆�

銆€銆€绉诲嫊骞冲潎娉曟槸涓€绋檪闁撳簭鍒楁硶(鎴栧欢浼搁爯(y霉)娓硶锛屾垨瓒ㄥ嫝澶栨帹娉�)锛屼笖涓€鑸彧閬╃敤浜庣煭鏈�(鎴栬繎鏈�)闋�(y霉)娓�;

銆€銆€涓€鍏冨洖姝稿垎鏋愭柟娉曞爆浜庡洜鏋滃垎鏋愭柟娉�锛岄仼鐢ㄤ簬鐭€佷腑銆侀暦鏈�(鎴栦腑闀锋湡锛屾垨闀锋湡)闋�(y霉)娓�銆�

銆€銆€3銆佸湪α=0.025鐨勯’钁楁€ф椹楁按骞充笂锛�2015骞磋┎鐢�(ch菐n)鍝侀渶姹傞噺鐨勫崁(q奴)闁撴噳(y墨ng)鐐猴細

銆€銆€3000±t(α/2锛宯-2)S0=3000±204×140

銆€銆€鍗�2015骞寸殑闇€姹傞噺鍦�(2714锛�4锛�32856)鍗€(q奴)闁撶殑姒傜巼鐐�97.5%銆�

銆€銆€

      鍏�銆佺煡璀橀粸锛氭湰椤岃€冮粸娑夊強鏁欐潗銆婇爡鐩焙绛栧垎鏋愯垏瑭曞児銆嬩腑铻嶈硣鏂规瑷�(sh猫)瑷堝拰鍎�(y艒u)鍖�銆佽硣閲戞垚鏈�銆佷笉纰哄畾鎬у垎鏋愬拰棰�(f膿ng)闅垎鏋�銆佽病鍕�(w霉)瑭曞児鐨勬湁闂�(gu膩n)鍏�(n猫i)瀹�銆�

銆€銆€绛旀锛�

銆€銆€1.璩囨湰閲戠殑鎴愭湰Ks=绀炬渻鐒￠ⅷ(f膿ng)闅姇璩囨敹鐩婄巼Rf+闋呯洰鐨勬姇璩囬ⅷ(f膿ng)闅郴鏁�(sh霉)β(甯傚牬鎶曡硣绲勫悎闋�(y霉)鏈熸敹鐩奟m-绀炬渻鐒￠ⅷ(f膿ng)闅姇璩囨敹鐩婄巼Rt)

銆€銆€璩囨湰閲戠殑鎴愭湰=3%+1×(8%-3%)=8%

銆€銆€绺介珨绋呭悗璩囬噾鎴愭湰=8%×35%+7%×(1-25%)(1-35%)=6.2125%

銆€銆€2銆丅FP(鐢熺敘(ch菐n)鑳藉姏鍒╃敤鐜�)=骞寸附鍥哄畾鎴愭湰/(骞撮姺鍞敹鍏�-骞寸附鍙畩鎴愭湰-骞撮姺鍞▍閲戣垏闄勫姞)

銆€銆€=42500/(125000-21000-1200)=41.34%

銆€銆€3銆佺涓€绋畻娉曪細瑷堢畻鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊肩殑绲勫悎姒傜巼锛屽皣鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊煎緸灏忓埌澶ч爢搴忔帓鍒�锛屽苟瑷堢畻璨″嫏(w霉)鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊煎皬浜庣瓑浜庨浂鐨勬鐜�銆�

銆€銆€P[NPV<0]=0.35+(0.4-0.35)[864/(864+10344)]=0.354

銆€銆€鎴朠[NPV<0]=0.4-(0.4-0.35)[10344/(864+10344)]=0.354

銆€銆€璨″嫏(w霉)鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊煎ぇ浜庣瓑浜庨浂鐨勬鐜�=1-0.354=64.6%

銆€銆€瑾槑鏈爡鐩姉棰�(f膿ng)闅€ц兘鍔涜純寮�銆�

銆€銆€绗簩绋畻娉曪細瑷堢畻鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊肩殑绲勫悎姒傜巼锛屽皣鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊煎緸澶у埌灏忛爢搴忔帓鍒�锛屽苟瑷堢畻璨″嫏(w霉)鍑堢従(xi脿n)鍊煎ぇ浜庣瓑浜庨浂鐨勬鐜�銆�

銆€銆€P[NPV>0]=0.65+(0.8-0.65)[10344/(864+10344)]=0.788

銆€銆€鎴朠[NPV<0]=0.8-(08-0.65)[864/(864+10344)]=0.788

銆€銆€瑾槑鏈爡鐩姉棰�(f膿ng)闅€ц兘鍔涜純寮�銆�

銆€銆€4銆佺暥(d膩ng)闋呯洰闈㈣嚚棰�(f膿ng)闅檪锛屼富瑕侀ⅷ(f膿ng)闅皪绛栨湁棰�(f膿ng)闅洖閬裤€侀ⅷ(f膿ng)闅帶鍒�銆侀ⅷ(f膿ng)闅綁(zhu菐n)绉�銆侀ⅷ(f膿ng)闅嚜鎿�(d膩n)銆�