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銆€銆€涓€鑸儏娉佷笅锛岃娓�(c猫)鍊煎憟杓冪┅(w臎n)瀹氱殑姘村钩鐧�(f膩)灞�锛屛卞€煎彇0.1-0.3涔嬮枔;瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊兼尝鍕�(d貌ng)杓� 澶ф檪(sh铆)锛屛卞€煎彇0.3鈥�0.5涔嬮枔;瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊煎憟娉㈠嫊(d貌ng)寰堝ぇ鏅�(sh铆)锛屛卞€煎彇0.5-0.8涔嬮枔銆�

銆€銆€(涓�)鍒濆鍊糉o鐨勭⒑瀹�

銆€銆€寰炴寚鏁�(sh霉)骞虫粦娉曠殑瑷�(j矛)绠楀叕寮忓彲浠ョ湅鍑�锛屾寚鏁�(sh霉)骞虫粦娉曟槸涓€鍊�(g猫)杩唬瑷�(j矛)绠楅亷(gu貌)绋�锛岀敤瑭叉硶閫�(j矛n) 琛岄爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)锛岄鍏堝繀闋堢⒑瀹氬垵濮嬪€糉o鍊�锛屽畠瀵�(sh铆)璩�(zh矛)涓婃噳(y墨ng)瑭叉槸搴忓垪璧烽粸(di菐n)t=0浠ュ墠鎵€鏈夋鍙叉暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉) 鐨勫姞娆�(qu谩n)骞冲潎鍊笺€�

銆€銆€涓€鑸噰鐢ㄩ€欐ǎ鐨勬柟娉曡檿鐞嗭細鐣�(d膩ng)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楁湡鏁�(sh霉)鍦�20鍊�(g猫)浠ヤ笂鏅�(sh铆)锛屽垵濮嬪€� 灏�(du矛)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)绲�(ji茅)鏋滅殑褰遍熆寰堝皬锛屽彲鐢ㄧ涓€鏈熺殑瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊间唬鏇匡紝鍗矲o=x1;鐣�(d膩ng)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楁湡鏁�(sh霉)鍦�20 鍊�(g猫)浠ヤ笅鏅�(sh铆)锛屽垵濮嬪€煎皪(du矛)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)绲�(ji茅)鏋滄湁涓€瀹氬奖闊匡紝鍙彇鍓�3-5鍊�(g猫)瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊肩殑骞冲潎鍊间唬鏇�锛屽锛�

銆€銆€Fo= (x1+x 2+X3) /3銆�

銆€銆€涓�銆佹垚闀�(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n)妯″瀷

銆€銆€鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佺敓鍛藉懆鏈熺悊璜栨彮绀虹敘(ch菐n)鍝佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)鐨勭櫦(f膩)灞曞叿鏈変竴鍊�(g猫)鎴愰暦(zh菐ng)鐨勯亷(gu貌)绋�锛岃缍�(j墨ng)姝峰皫(d菐o)鍏ユ湡銆佹垚闀�(zh菐ng)鏈�銆佹垚鐔熸湡鍜岃“閫€鏈熷洓鍊�(g猫)闅庢銆傚皪(du矛)鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)婕旇畩瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)锛屽彲浠ラ亱(y霉n)鐢ㄦ垚闀�(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n)(鍙堢ū(ch膿ng)鐐哄闀�(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n))闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷閫�(j矛n)琛岄爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)銆�

銆€銆€(涓€)鎴愰暦(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n)妯″瀷

銆€銆€Yt =e(k+abt)(k>0锛宐>0)

銆€銆€瑭叉ā鍨嬬ū(ch膿ng)鐐洪緮娉婅尣鏇茬窔(xi脿n)锛屽畠鍙嶆槧浜嗘檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楀憟鐝�(xi脿n)S鍨嬪闀�(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n)锛屽嵆鍒濇湡澧為暦(zh菐ng)绶╂參锛屾帴钁椾互杓冨ぇ骞呭害澧為暦(zh菐ng)锛岄毃鍚庤定浜庣┅(w臎n)瀹氭按骞�銆傚畠鑸囩敘(ch菐n)鍝佺敓鍛藉懆鏈熸洸绶�(xi脿n)闈炲父鐩镐技锛屽彲浠ョ敤渚�(l谩i)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)鐨勫懆鏈熻畩鍖栥€�

銆€銆€(浜�)瑷�(j矛)绠楅亷(gu貌)绋�(鐣�)

銆€銆€鍥�銆佸绡€(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鍒嗘瀽

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銆€銆€鎺屾彙甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闇€姹傜殑瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)璁婂寲瑕�(gu墨)寰嬶紝鏄悎鐞嗛爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闇€姹傜殑鍓嶆彁銆傚绡€(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鎸夌収鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒�锛屾湁鍗囬檷瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)鍜屾按骞宠定鍕�(sh矛)锛屽绡€(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鍒嗘瀽鍖呮嫭瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉曞拰瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉曞叐绋�銆�

銆€銆€(涓€)瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉�

銆€銆€闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷锛�

銆€銆€Yt=Yft

銆€銆€寮忎腑 Y鈥曗€曠偤鏅�(sh铆)搴忕殑骞冲潎姘村钩锛宖t鐐哄绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆�

銆€銆€Y鍙互鏄爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍓嶄竴骞寸殑鏈�(瀛�)骞冲潎姘村钩锛屼篃鍙互鏄凡鐭ュ勾浠芥墍鏈夋暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囨按骞�銆俧t绋�(ch膿ng)鐐哄绡€(ji茅)姣旀垨瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆佸绡€(ji茅)绯绘暩(sh霉)锛屽畠琛ㄧず瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鐨勬暩(sh霉)閲忕媭鎱�(t脿i)銆�

銆€銆€瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉曢仼鐢ㄤ簬鐒�(w煤)鏄庨’鐨勪笂鍗囨垨涓嬮檷璁婂嫊(d貌ng)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)锛屼富瑕佸彈瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鍜屼笉瑕�(gu墨)鍓囪畩鍕�(d貌ng)褰遍熆鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楋紝瀹冧竴鑸渶瑕�3-5骞村垎鏈�(鎴栧搴�)鐨勬鍙叉暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)璩囨枡銆�

銆€銆€瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉曢爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐨勪竴鑸▼搴�?y脿n)妞�?/P>

銆€銆€(1)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍒嗘瀽锛屽舰鎴愭暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)搴忓垪;

銆€銆€(2)瑷�(j矛)绠楀悇骞村悓鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囧€紋i;

銆€銆€(3)瑷�(j矛)绠楁墍鏈夊勾鎵€鏈夋湀(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囧€糦;

銆€銆€(4)瑷�(j矛)绠楀悇鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫绡€(ji茅)姣旂巼ft=Yi/Y;

銆€銆€(5)瑷�(j矛)绠楅爯(y霉)鏈熻定鍕�(sh矛)鍊硷紝涓€鑸噰鐢ㄦ渶杩戝勾浠界殑骞冲潎鍊糦t-1;

銆€銆€(6)瑷�(j矛)绠楅爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)骞村悇鏈�(瀛�)鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊糦t= Yt-1*ft

銆€銆€(浜�)瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉�

銆€銆€甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闇€姹傞噺瀛樺湪瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)锛屽悓鏅�(sh铆)鍚勫勾姘村钩鎴栧悓鏈�(鎴栧)姘村钩鍛堢従(xi脿n)涓婂崌鎴栦笅闄嶇殑瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)锛岄€欐檪(sh铆)涓嶈兘閲囩敤鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉�锛岃€屾噳(y墨ng)瑭查噰鐢ㄥ绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉�銆�

銆€銆€鍏堕爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷鐐猴細

銆€銆€Y=(a+bt)ft

銆€銆€寮忎腑(a+bt)鐐烘檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楃殑绶�(xi脿n)鎬ц定鍕�(sh矛)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)閮ㄥ垎锛宖t鐐哄绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆�

銆€銆€瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉曠殑鍩烘湰鎬濊矾鏄紝鍏堝垎闆㈠嚭涓嶅惈瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)鍛ㄦ湡璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鐨勯暦(zh菐ng)鏈熻定鍕�(sh矛)锛屽啀瑷�(j矛)绠楀绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛屾渶鍚庡缓绔嬮爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷銆傚叾鍩烘湰姝ラ鏄細

銆€銆€(1)浠ヤ竴骞寸殑瀛ｅ害鏁�(sh霉)4鎴栨湀鏁�(sh霉)12鐐簄锛屽皪(du矛)瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊兼檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楅€�(j矛n)琛宯闋�(xi脿ng)绉诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎銆�

銆€銆€(2)鐢变簬n鐐哄伓鏁�(sh霉)锛屾噳(y墨ng)鍐嶅皪(du矛)鐩搁劙鍏╂湡鐨勭Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍐嶅钩鍧囧悗灏�(du矛)姝�锛屽舰鎴愭柊鐨勫簭鍒桵t锛屼互姝ょ偤闀�(zh菐ng)鏈熻定鍕�(sh矛)銆�

銆€銆€(3)灏囧悇鏈熻娓�(c猫)鍊奸櫎鍘诲悓鏈熺Щ鍕�(d貌ng)鍧囧€肩偤瀛ｇ瘈(ji茅)姣旂巼锛� ft=Yt/Mt锛屼互娑堥櫎瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)銆�

銆€銆€(4)灏囧悇骞村悓瀛�(鎴栨湀)鐨勫绡€(ji茅)姣旂巼骞冲潎锛屽绡€(ji茅)骞冲潎姣旂巼fi娑堥櫎涓嶈(gu墨)鍓囪畩鍕�(d貌ng)锛宨琛ㄧず瀛ｅ害鎴栨湀浠�銆�

銆€銆€(5)瑷�(j矛)绠楁檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楃窔(xi脿n)鎬ц定鍕�(sh矛)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊糥鈥檛锛屾ā鍨嬬偤锛�

銆€銆€X鈥檛=a+bt

銆€銆€寮忎腑 b=(Mt鏈熬闋�(xi脿ng)鈥昅t棣栭爡(xi脿ng))/Mt闋�(xi脿ng)鏁�(sh霉)

銆€銆€a=[鈭憏-b*鈭憈]/n

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