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銆€銆€x鈥檛+1=Ft
銆€銆€浜﹀嵆 x鈥檛+1 =伪x +(1-伪)
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銆€銆€鐣�(d膩ng)伪鎺ヨ繎浜�0鏅�(sh铆)锛屾柊闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊煎彧鍖呭惈杓冨皬鐨勮宸慨姝e洜绱�;
銆€銆€鐣�(d膩ng)伪=0鏅�(sh铆)锛孎(xi脿n)t+1=Ft锛屽嵆鏈湡闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊煎氨绛変簬涓婃湡闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊�銆�
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銆€銆€涓€鑸儏娉佷笅锛岃娓�(c猫)鍊煎憟杓冪┅(w臎n)瀹氱殑姘村钩鐧�(f膩)灞�锛屛卞€煎彇0.1-0.3涔嬮枔;瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊兼尝鍕�(d貌ng)杓� 澶ф檪(sh铆)锛屛卞€煎彇0.3鈥�0.5涔嬮枔;瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊煎憟娉㈠嫊(d貌ng)寰堝ぇ鏅�(sh铆)锛屛卞€煎彇0.5-0.8涔嬮枔銆�
銆€銆€(涓�)鍒濆鍊糉o鐨勭⒑瀹�
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銆€銆€Fo= (x1+x 2+X3) /3銆�
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銆€銆€瑭叉ā鍨嬬ū(ch膿ng)鐐洪緮娉婅尣鏇茬窔(xi脿n)锛屽畠鍙嶆槧浜嗘檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楀憟鐝�(xi脿n)S鍨嬪闀�(zh菐ng)鏇茬窔(xi脿n)锛屽嵆鍒濇湡澧為暦(zh菐ng)绶╂參锛屾帴钁椾互杓冨ぇ骞呭害澧為暦(zh菐ng)锛岄毃鍚庤定浜庣┅(w臎n)瀹氭按骞�銆傚畠鑸囩敘(ch菐n)鍝佺敓鍛藉懆鏈熸洸绶�(xi脿n)闈炲父鐩镐技锛屽彲浠ョ敤渚�(l谩i)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐢�(ch菐n)鍝佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)鐨勫懆鏈熻畩鍖栥€�
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銆€銆€Yt=Yft
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銆€銆€Y鍙互鏄爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍓嶄竴骞寸殑鏈�(瀛�)骞冲潎姘村钩锛屼篃鍙互鏄凡鐭ュ勾浠芥墍鏈夋暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囨按骞�銆俧t绋�(ch膿ng)鐐哄绡€(ji茅)姣旀垨瀛g瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆佸绡€(ji茅)绯绘暩(sh霉)锛屽畠琛ㄧず瀛g瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鐨勬暩(sh霉)閲忕媭鎱�(t脿i)銆�
銆€銆€瀛g瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉曢仼鐢ㄤ簬鐒�(w煤)鏄庨’鐨勪笂鍗囨垨涓嬮檷璁婂嫊(d貌ng)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)锛屼富瑕佸彈瀛g瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鍜屼笉瑕�(gu墨)鍓囪畩鍕�(d貌ng)褰遍熆鐨勬檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楋紝瀹冧竴鑸渶瑕�3-5骞村垎鏈�(鎴栧搴�)鐨勬鍙叉暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)璩囨枡銆�
銆€銆€瀛g瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉曢爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐨勪竴鑸▼搴�?y脿n)妞�?/P>
銆€銆€(1)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍒嗘瀽锛屽舰鎴愭暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)搴忓垪;
銆€銆€(2)瑷�(j矛)绠楀悇骞村悓鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囧€紋i;
銆€銆€(3)瑷�(j矛)绠楁墍鏈夊勾鎵€鏈夋湀(鎴栧)鐨勫钩鍧囧€糦;
銆€銆€(4)瑷�(j矛)绠楀悇鏈�(鎴栧)鐨勫绡€(ji茅)姣旂巼ft=Yi/Y;
銆€銆€(5)瑷�(j矛)绠楅爯(y霉)鏈熻定鍕�(sh矛)鍊硷紝涓€鑸噰鐢ㄦ渶杩戝勾浠界殑骞冲潎鍊糦t-1;
銆€銆€(6)瑷�(j矛)绠楅爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)骞村悇鏈�(瀛�)鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊糦t= Yt-1*ft
銆€銆€(浜�)瀛g瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉�
銆€銆€甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闇€姹傞噺瀛樺湪瀛g瘈(ji茅)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)锛屽悓鏅�(sh铆)鍚勫勾姘村钩鎴栧悓鏈�(鎴栧)姘村钩鍛堢従(xi脿n)涓婂崌鎴栦笅闄嶇殑瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)锛岄€欐檪(sh铆)涓嶈兘閲囩敤鎸囨暩(sh霉)姘村钩娉�锛岃€屾噳(y墨ng)瑭查噰鐢ㄥ绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉�銆�
銆€銆€鍏堕爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷鐐猴細
銆€銆€Y=(a+bt)ft
銆€銆€寮忎腑(a+bt)鐐烘檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楃殑绶�(xi脿n)鎬ц定鍕�(sh矛)璁婂嫊(d貌ng)閮ㄥ垎锛宖t鐐哄绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)銆�
銆€銆€瀛g瘈(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)娉曠殑鍩烘湰鎬濊矾鏄紝鍏堝垎闆㈠嚭涓嶅惈瀛g瘈(ji茅)鍛ㄦ湡璁婂嫊(d貌ng)鐨勯暦(zh菐ng)鏈熻定鍕�(sh矛)锛屽啀瑷�(j矛)绠楀绡€(ji茅)鎸囨暩(sh霉)锛屾渶鍚庡缓绔嬮爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)妯″瀷銆傚叾鍩烘湰姝ラ鏄細
銆€銆€(1)浠ヤ竴骞寸殑瀛e害鏁�(sh霉)4鎴栨湀鏁�(sh霉)12鐐簄锛屽皪(du矛)瑙€娓�(c猫)鍊兼檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楅€�(j矛n)琛宯闋�(xi脿ng)绉诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎銆�
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