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鐎忚
鏀惰棌
鏌ョ湅鍖附锛�2013骞寸稉(j墨ng)婵�(j矛)甯€冭│銆婁腑绱�(j铆)鍟嗘キ(y猫)銆嬮爯(y霉)缈�(x铆)鍖附
銆€銆€绗洓绔犮€€鍟嗗搧娴侀€氫紒妤�(y猫)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鑸囨焙绛�
4.1甯傚牬(ch菐ng)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)
浜�銆佸競鍫�(ch菐ng)闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐨勬柟娉�
銆€銆€(涓€)瀹氭€ч爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)娉曪細
銆€銆€瀹氭€ч爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鏄寚闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鏈締鐧�(f膩)灞曠殑澶ц嚧瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)鎴栨柟鍚�锛屼富瑕侀潬浜哄€戠殑涓昏鍒ゆ柗銆� 鍖呮嫭锛氬痉鐖捐彶娉�銆侀鎺ㄦ硶銆佺敤鎴惰(di脿o)鏌ユ硶銆�
銆€銆€1. 寰风埦鑿叉硶 鍙堢ū鐐鸿€佸斧鎰忚娉曞拰鑰佸斧瑾�(di脿o)鏌ユ硶銆傝槶寰峰叕鍙�1946骞村壍(chu脿ng)寤�锛屽悗渚嗗洜?y脿n)妲屾檼桅蹇礎(y霉)娓�(c猫)浜嗘湞楫埌(zh脿n)鐖�(zh膿ng)鐨勭編杌嶇殑澶辨晽鑰岃伈鍚嶉挡璧枫€傚痉鐖捐彶鏄互鍖垮悕鐨勬柟寮�锛岃吉鐣緛瑭㈣€佸斧鎰忚锛屾渶绲傚緱鍑洪爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)绲�(ji茅)鏋滅殑涓€绋稉(j墨ng)椹�(y脿n)鎰忚缍滃悎娉�銆�
銆€銆€寰风埦鑿叉硶闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)姝ラ锛�(1)婧�(zh菙n)鍌欓殠娈�銆傛摤瀹氭剰瑕嬪緛瑭㈣〃鍜岄伕瀹氬緛瑭㈠皪(du矛)璞�銆傝€佸斧鐨勯伕鎿囨敞鎰忎互涓嬪咕榛�(di菐n)锛氱涓€锛岃嚜鎰挎€с€傚彧鏈夊厖鍒嗚€冩叜鑰佸斧鐨勮嚜鎰挎€�锛屾墠鑳介伩鍏嶈€佸斧鎰忚鍥炴敹鐜囦綆鐨勫晱椤�銆備繚璀夎€佸斧鍏呭垎鐧�(f膩)鎻⿳妤垫€�銆佸壍(chu脿ng)閫犳€у拰鑱版槑鎵嶆櫤銆傜浜�锛屽唬娉涙€с€傝姹傝€佸斧鏈夊唬娉涚殑渚嗘簮銆傜涓�锛屼汉鏁�(sh霉)閬╁害銆備汉鏁�(sh霉)閬庡皯锛岀己涔忎唬琛ㄦ€�锛屼俊鎭噺涓嶈冻;浜烘暩(sh霉)閬庡锛岀祫绻斿伐浣滃洶闆�锛屾垚鏈鍔�銆備竴鑸互15-50浜虹偤瀹�銆�(2)杓暘寰佽闅庢(鍏烽珨瑕嬫暀鏉�)(3)浣滃嚭闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)绲�(ji茅)璜栭殠娈点€傚父瑕嬬殑绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)铏曠悊鏂规硶鏈夛細涓綅鏁�(sh霉)鍜屼笂涓嬪洓鍒嗕綅鏁�(sh霉)娉�銆佺畻琛�(sh霉)骞冲潎绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)铏曠悊娉�銆佷富瑙€姒傜巼绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)铏曠悊娉曠瓑銆�
銆€銆€2. 椤炴帹娉曪細鍖呮嫭鐩搁棞(gu膩n)椤炴帹娉曞拰灏�(du矛)姣旈鎺ㄦ硶銆�
銆€銆€(1)鐩搁棞(gu膩n)椤炴帹娉曪細鏄埄鐢ㄥ凡鐭ョ殑鐩搁棞(gu膩n)鍟嗗搧鐨勬暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鍜岃硣鏂�锛屾帹鏂烽爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍟嗗搧鏈締闇€姹傝定鍕�(sh矛)鐨勪竴绋柟娉曘€傚晢鍝佷箣闁撶殑鐩搁棞(gu膩n)闂�(gu膩n)绯诲ぇ楂斿寘鎷細鈶犳檪(sh铆)闁撲笂鐨勫厛琛�銆佸悗琛岄棞(gu膩n)绯�;鈶″彲鏇夸唬鍟嗗搧鐨勯棞(gu膩n)绯�;鈶簰瑁�(b菙)鎬ч棞(gu膩n)绯�銆�
銆€銆€(2)灏�(du矛)姣旈鎺ㄦ硶锛氭牴鎿�(j霉)鍚岄鍟嗗搧鍦ㄤ笉鍚屾檪(sh铆)鏈�銆佷笉鍚屽湴鍗€(q奴)鐨勯渶姹傛儏娉�锛屽姞浠ュ皪(du矛)姣斿垎鏋愶紝渚嗘帹鏂峰叾鏈締鐨勭櫦(f膩)灞曡定鍕�(sh矛)銆�
銆€銆€3. 鐢ㄦ埗瑾�(di脿o)鏌ユ硶锛氬張绋辫臣璨疯€呮剰鍚戣(di脿o)鏌ユ硶銆傚氨鏄畾鏈熺洿鎺ュ悜鐢ㄦ埗浜嗚В涓嬩竴鏅�(sh铆)鏈熻臣璨风殑鎰忓悜锛岄€氶亷缍滃悎鍒嗘瀽锛屾帹鏂峰嚭鐢ㄦ埗璩艰卜鎰忓悜鐨勮畩鍕�(d貌ng)瓒ㄥ嫝(sh矛)銆�
銆€銆€(浜�)瀹氶噺闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)娉曪細
銆€銆€1. 鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楅爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)娉曪細涓婃湡閵峰敭閲忔硶銆佺畻琛�(sh霉)骞冲潎娉�銆佺Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鏁�(sh霉)娉曘€�
銆€銆€鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楀垎鏋愭硶鏄妸闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍟嗗搧鐨勪竴绲勫(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鎸夌収鏅�(sh铆)闁撻爢搴忔帓鍒�锛岄€氶亷绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)鍒嗘瀽鎴栧缓绔嬫暩(sh霉)瀛�(xu茅)妯″瀷閫�(j矛n)琛屽鎺ㄧ殑瀹氶噺闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鏂规硶銆傞€欓鏂规硶浠ラ€ｈ搏鎬у師鐞嗙偤渚濇摎(j霉)锛屼互鍋囪ō(sh猫)浜嬬墿閬庡幓鍜岀従(xi脿n)鍦ㄧ殑鐧�(f膩)灞曡畩鍖栬定鍕�(sh矛)鏈�(hu矛)鐓фǎ寤剁簩(x霉)鍒版湭渚嗙偤鍓嶆彁姊濅欢锛岀洿鎺ュ緸鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楀緸绲�(t菕ng)瑷�(j矛)鏁�(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)涓壘鍑轰簨鐗╃櫦(f膩)灞曠殑瑕�(gu墨)寰嬫€э紝骞舵摎(j霉)姝ゅ鎺ㄩ爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐩(bi膩o)鐨勬湭渚嗙櫦(f膩)灞曡定鍕�(sh矛)銆�
銆€銆€(1)涓婃湡閵峰敭閲忔硶锛氱洿鎺ヤ互涓婃湡瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺浣滅偤涓嬩竴鏈熼姺鍞噺鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊�銆傛妸涓婁竴鏈熺殑瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺浣滅偤涓嬩竴鏈熼姺鍞噺鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊�銆傚叕寮忥細Ft=Dt-1
銆€銆€寮忎腑锛欶t鈥曗€曠t鏈熺殑闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)閵峰敭閲�;
銆€銆€Dt-1鈥曗€曠t-1鏈熺殑瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺锛屽嵆涓婃湡瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺銆�
銆€銆€閫欑ó鏂规硶鏄檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楀垎鏋愭硶鐨勪竴绋サ绔儏娉�锛屽彧鑰冩叜鏈€杩戜竴鍊�(g猫)鏅�(sh铆)鏈熺殑瀵�(sh铆)闅涙暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)锛屽拷鐣ュ叾浠栨檪(sh铆)鏈熷(sh铆)闅涙暩(sh霉)鎿�(j霉)鐨勫奖闊�銆傚畠鐨勭壒寰佹槸鍙嶆槧闇€姹傝畩鍖栨渶蹇�锛岀┅(w臎n)瀹氭€т綆銆傞€欑ó鏂规硶閬╃敤浜庡(sh铆)闅涢渶姹傝畩鍖栧箙搴︿笉澶х殑鎯呮硜銆�
銆€銆€(2)绠楄(sh霉)骞冲潎娉曪細 浠ユ檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒椾腑鍚勫€�(g猫)鏅�(sh铆)鏈熺殑瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺鐨勭畻琛�(sh霉)骞冲潎鍊间綔鐐轰笅涓€鏈熺殑闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)閵峰敭閲�銆傚叕寮忥細
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鍛ㄦ湡 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
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11 |
12 |
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瀵�(sh铆)闅涢姺鍞噺D |
500 |
508 |
480 |
600 |
600 |
660 |
590 |
700 |
680 |
740 |
790 |
760 |
銆€銆€绗�13鍛ㄦ湡鐨勯爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)閵峰敭閲忕偤锛�
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銆€銆€浜屾绉诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎鏁�(sh霉)娉曟槸鍒╃敤闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐩(bi膩o)鏅�(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒楃殑涓€娆＄Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍊煎拰浜屾绉诲嫊(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍊肩殑婊悗鍋忓樊婕旇畩瑕�(gu墨)寰嬪缓绔嬭捣绶氭€ф柟绋嬮€�(j矛n)琛岄爯(y霉)娓�(c猫)鐨勬柟娉�銆備簩娆＄Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍊兼槸浠ヤ竴娆＄Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍊间綔鐐烘檪(sh铆)闁撳簭鍒�锛屽啀瑷�(j矛)绠楃浜屾鐨勭Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鍊硷紝绉诲嫊(d貌ng)鏈熸暩(sh霉)涓嶈畩銆備簩娆＄Щ鍕�(d貌ng)骞冲潎鏁�(sh霉)娉曠殑绶氭€ф柟绋嬪紡鐐猴細
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銆€銆€琛�4鈥�3
|
鍛ㄦ湡 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
|
瀵�(sh铆)闅涘€糄 |
500 |
510 |
480 |
600 |
600 |
660 |
590 |
700 |
680 |
740 |
790 |
760 |
|
闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊糉 |
500 |
500 |
508 |
486 |
577 |
595 |
647 |
601 |
680 |
680 |
728 |
778 |
銆€銆€鍋囪ō(sh猫)绗�1鏈熺殑闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)鍊肩偤500锛岀劧鍚庝唬鍏ュ叕寮�锛屼緷娆￠亱(y霉n)绠楋細
銆€銆€F 2=0.8脳500+(1-0.8)脳500=500(鍗冨厠)
銆€銆€F 3=0.8脳510+(1-0.8)脳500=508(鍗冨厠)
銆€銆€F 4=0.8脳480+(1-0.8)脳508=486(鍗冨厠)
銆€銆€鍏朵綑椤炴帹銆傚闋�(y霉)娓�(c猫)绗�13鏈熺殑閵峰敭閲�锛屽墖
銆€銆€F 13=0.8脳760+(1-0.8)脳778=764(鍗冨厠)
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